I have discovered that I am a worrier.<\/p>\n\t
Everyone worries I suppose….about paying rent each month, about their job, their kids, about lots of things. \u00a0That is normal.<\/p>\n\t
I don’t worry so much about the day-to-day, but as if to point out that the brain (or at least my brain) is hard-wired to worry…..I invent worry about things I cannot control and most people would never even give a thought to. \u00a0These items consume much of my brain cycles and I write about them often (Democracy, Money, Work (in the abstract), Morals, Intelligence, etc.). \u00a0If only I could focus my brain on something more constructive instead of thinking about things I will never even influence, much less control.<\/p>\n\t
I would like to introduce a concept and then develop a thought.<\/p>\n\t
The Law of Conservation of Complexity <\/strong>(<– I made up the name):<\/strong><\/p>\n\t The Law of Conservation of Complexity proposes: \u00a0When outcomes remain constant, Complexity is neither created nor destroyed; responsibility for it simply shifts.<\/em><\/p>\n\t Here is an example:<\/p>\n\t Computers have gotten easier to use over the years. \u00a0Remember command line, text interfaces?<\/p>\n\t Instead of making us remember tons of\u00a0arcane\u00a0text commands for doing simple things like copying, pasting, and\/or renaming files, the software companies created a Graphical User Interface to allow us to do the same thing in simpler way. \u00a0The outcome is the same, copying\/pasting, etc….but the complexity has moved behind the GUI interface.<\/p>\n\t Complexity actually increased<\/strong>. \u00a0Software engineers created a complicated graphics layer to allow us to interact more easily. \u00a0This layer didn’t exist before and creates lots of extra work for software folks.<\/p>\n\t In general, if something becomes less complex for you, it becomes more complex for someone else. \u00a0That is the law of conservation of complexity.<\/strong><\/p>\n\t What this means is that complexity is always ramping UP….not down. \u00a0When something is “simplified”, generally it hasn’t been….the complicated work has simply shifted away from the people who are calling it “simplified” and toward another group that must maintain the “simplicity” with a bunch of complex processes and skilled labor.<\/p>\n\t If no one maintains the shifted complexity, you just get broken stuff as the people who think it has been simplified don’t realize that it was only simplified for them and don’t allocate sufficient resources to maintaining the newly shifted complexity.<\/p>\n\t The idea I’d like to develop is:<\/p>\n\t Civilization is limited by our ability to manage complexity….and complexity tends to crash, not unwind.<\/strong><\/p>\n\t I’d wager people believe Civilization is a fairly stable thing. \u00a0The logic might run something like “There is just too much involved for it all to fail. \u00a0If some country falls apart or technology is lost, \u00a0it is replaced and relearned by others. \u00a0Civilization is robust.”<\/p>\n\t This is the global network theory, and is somewhat true on a limited scale. \u00a0Civilization is definitely built upon the remains of other civilizations and if one country fails, another replaces it.<\/p>\n\t HOWEVER, the analogy is less like a city or pyramid and more like a house of cards.<\/p>\n\t Civilization is a house of cards.<\/p>\n\t If you’ve ever built a very large house of cards (using multiple decks), you can occasionally have little sections collapse and rebuild fine; you can have it spread if you keep it near the floor….but as you build higher and the complexity of the structures rise, it becomes more difficult to rebuild collapsed sections. \u00a0Additionally it gets heavier, \u00a0more prone to larger issues, and it will eventually begin to collapse under its own weight no matter what you do.<\/p>\n\t If you get to this point, it is not possible to rewind your house of cards, to make it less complex. \u00a0The harder you try the more you will knock it down.<\/p>\n\t Things are really complex already; more than any one person can manage. Let’s take a concrete example:<\/p>\n\t The iPhone. \u00a0(I’m picking technology examples because technology is among the most complex things humans produce.)<\/p>\n\t No ONE person can make an iPhone. \u00a0No two people can. \u00a0In fact, no\u00a0hundred\u00a0people can. \u00a0You need cell networks to exist; you need miniature cameras; you need an army of expert software programmers, you need mp3s to exist; you need scratch proof touchscreen glass to exist; you need people with computers and iTunes\u00a0and enough money to buy such devices; you need phones to exist; you need compression algorithms and IP protocols to send\/receive data; you need sophisticated battery technology to power the device; you need cheap, available electricity to charge it;\u00a0you need GPS satellites in space……..you need a shitload of stuff to exist to make an iPhone.<\/p>\n\t There are limits to the complexity humans can manage.<\/strong><\/p>\n\t Now imagine a device 100 times as complex as the iPhone.<\/em> How would it get made? \u00a0There are coordination costs of any large endeavor; eventually nothing gets done if the addition of extra complexity is eaten up by the lack of ability to manage it.<\/p>\n\t So when you reach this point, where each additional “unit” of complexity no longer adds to the end product, but subtracts from it….then what happens? Can you rewind? <\/strong><\/p>\n\t Like a juggler, you can add extra balls and keep them all going and things are moving faster and they are more complicated…but then when you add that last ball, it doesn’t slow down….you drop all the balls and you have to start over.<\/p>\n\t How robust is Civilization?<\/p>\n\t I think not so much. \u00a0Though we have currently had a good row of 3000 years or so, that is paltry compared to the sum of mankind’s existence (modern humans have been around in fits and starts for about 100,000 years). \u00a0Events do happen that cause things to unravel, and unlike our linear conception of ramp up, then ramp down….in nature it is often an exponential rise, then a very steep\u00a0drop off. \u00a0Complexity tends to crash, not fizzle.<\/strong><\/p>\n\t Where does that leave us? \u00a0In the same spot we were before. \u00a0I know it exists and we (though probably not me) will bump up against the complexity limit someday…but we will not be able to do much about it. \u00a0I simply tend to think about things that I have no control over.\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I have discovered that I am a worrier. Everyone worries I suppose….about paying rent each month, about their job, their kids, about lots of things. \u00a0That is normal. I don’t worry so much about the day-to-day, but as if to point out that the brain (or at least my brain) is hard-wired to worry…..I invent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0},"categories":[1],"tags":[67],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3IMYj-5F","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":134,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=134","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":0},"title":"Holistic thinking, Complexity and Inflation","author":"kellio","date":"February 19, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Ok...really its two different topics, so I'll take holistic thinking first. So I do HR consulting, and we are always talking about the big picture...creating a holistic transformation, etc, etc.\u00a0 Let's think about holistic.\u00a0 Its means whole.\u00a0 You're thinking about the whole thing. Why is this is pipe dream?\u00a0 Two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"economics\"","block_context":{"text":"economics","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?tag=economics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":265,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=265","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":1},"title":"Energy Efficiency, Corporate Person-hood, and Free Will","author":"kellio","date":"December 15, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"People and their values.\u00a0 Anyway, 1st up today is: Energy Efficiency It's a red herring.\u00a0 ENERGY EFFICIENCY WILL NOT AFFECT GLOBAL WARMING.\u00a0 It will make it worse. Econ 101:\u00a0 If you make something more efficient people will use it MORE, not less.\u00a0 Take the cotton gin....before it was invented, we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Thoughts on Work"","block_context":{"text":"Thoughts on Work","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?cat=6"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=17","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":2},"title":"The Rise of Autism Spectrum Disorders","author":"kellio","date":"October 16, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"I added a twitter widget to my sidebar.\u00a0 I think the concept is interesting.\u00a0 Its not enough to have email, or a blog, or telephone #, or RSS....now there is a way to feed your whole life....every mood, every action.\u00a0 The next step would a webcam that streams a picture\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":313,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=313","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":3},"title":"Is Racism Ok? The issue with Libertarianism.","author":"kellio","date":"May 24, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Rand Paul has come under serious fire lately for his staunch libertarian stance on the Civil Rights Act.\u00a0 The basic gist is:\u00a0 Government doesn't need to interfere in a business's right to be racist if it wants.\u00a0 The market can decide; if people don't like racism, they won't shop at\u2026","rel":"","context":"With 1 comment","block_context":{"text":"With 1 comment","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=313#comments"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=34","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":4},"title":"The important questions","author":"kellio","date":"December 9, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"I have grown tired of asking questions to which I know there are no answers. Perhaps that is adulthood? I ask more immediate questions these days: What will I do today after work? What will I do today at work? Where will I eat dinner? What kind of beer do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Favorite Entries"","block_context":{"text":"Favorite Entries","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?cat=10"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=21","url_meta":{"origin":351,"position":5},"title":"Coordination Costs","author":"kellio","date":"November 5, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"At work things are good. I have a new job, which isn't all that different from my last one. I enjoy coming to understand how work gets done though. Its a weird mix when people come together to do something and then a hierarchy emerges for who asks what to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Thoughts on Work"","block_context":{"text":"Thoughts on Work","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?cat=6"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=351"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":358,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions\/358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}