{"id":256,"date":"2009-11-11T13:35:36","date_gmt":"2009-11-11T20:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=256"},"modified":"2010-12-22T12:16:24","modified_gmt":"2010-12-22T19:16:24","slug":"reality-acceptance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=256","title":{"rendered":"Reality Acceptance"},"content":{"rendered":"\t

Basic assumptions are rarely questioned.\u00a0 One has to be pretty astute to even understand what the basic assumptions behind something are.\u00a0 If you don’t know; you can’t question.\u00a0 Even if you do, you have to be inclined to care.<\/p>\n\t

I’d like to question two basic assumptions today:<\/p>\n\t

Assumption 1: Kids should go to college<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\t

I disagree.\u00a0 Some kids should go to college<\/strong> (by college, I mean a 4 year degree).\u00a0 For most it is a gigantic waste of time\/money and they should stop being misled into attempting it.<\/p>\n\t

So which kids should go?\u00a0 Speaking practically, the ones that should go are the ones that are currently getting something out of it, as in the ones, at a minimum, who are graduating <\/strong>(never mind whether the degree is useful).<\/p>\n\t

If you are in the bottom half of your high school class…don’t go to college.\u00a0 About two thirds of you never graduate.\u00a0\u00a0 70% of high school graduates now go to college.\u00a0 Those numbers don’t add up.\u00a0 Why go?\u00a0 It leaves you in debt, and out of the workforce (a year of good work experience is worth far more than 1 year of random classes).\u00a0 It is a waste of time.<\/p>\n\t

With our battery of endless aptitude tests and 12 years of high school grades, we know with a high degree of accuracy which students will do well in college.\u00a0 Quit misleading the others into thinking it is worth their time to go<\/strong>.\u00a0 It is dishonest if high school kids aren’t told that college isn’t always a good idea.\u00a0 It is simply avoiding reality.<\/p>\n\t

That being said, people should always be able to bet on themselves.\u00a0 If you want to go to college anyway, and beat the odds….please do.\u00a0 Life is full of people beating the odds; however, make no mistake:\u00a0\u00a0 the reason we like those stories so much, and why they stick in our mind, is because they are exceptional, because they are out of the ordinary.\u00a0 We all want to believe we can beat the odds; it makes us feel good.<\/p>\n\t

However…..We can’t all be above average<\/strong>.\u00a0 That is a fact.\u00a0 We are not all future managers, CEOs, sports stars, rappers, singers, etc.\u00a0 Those at the top of their profession are compulsively dedicated and often very talented.\u00a0 Most of us are just not willing to work that hard and often don’t have the natural talent; accept it.\u00a0 Also, from a statistical point of view, we just can’t all be at the top of the pyramid.\u00a0 It is numerically impossible.<\/p>\n\t

I’m not going to post here (lack of time) on what we do about it…the fact that inequality of all kinds simply exists, and it must exist, whether it is politically correct to say so.\u00a0 I’ll simply say that if you want to be above average, you need to be aware enough of your position to realize that you can only be so because others are below average (you depend on them).\u00a0 Be thankful they exist, and treat them well; tomorrow you may be one of them.<\/p>\n\t

UPDATE 6\/10\/2010:\u00a0 Someone else (NY Times)<\/a> had the same idea I did.<\/p>\n\t

Assumption 2:\u00a0 Economic growth is good:<\/strong><\/p>\n\t

On average the US economy grows about 3% a year.\u00a0 That seems good, right?<\/p>\n\t

Yeah, its good in many ways.\u00a0 Would 6% growth be better?\u00a0 Sure.<\/p>\n\t

No one really questions whether growth is good.\u00a0 “A rising tide lifts all boats” right?\u00a0 Uh…maybe.\u00a0 Or a rising tide sinks those without boats.<\/p>\n\t

Anyway, I’m not even going to broach that subject here.\u00a0 Let’s take a step back…even further…way further…to the concept of 3% growth itself.\u00a0 Is it even possible to grow at 3% forever?<\/strong><\/p>\n\t

No.<\/strong><\/p>\n\t

People are quite poor at understanding exponential growth.\u00a0 We tend to conceptualize growth as linear; its a good rule of thumb that applies in most situations.<\/p>\n\t

Does 3% growth look like this?
\n\"\"<\/p>\n\t

No.\u00a0 That’s linear.<\/p>\n\t

Here is 3% growth in a series of 150.\u00a0 Think of it as a series of 150 years (but it is simply units, could be days, or miles, or whatever).
\n\"\"
\nThat’s a neat upward curve. Perhaps we think it would be good to grow like that?\u00a0 The fact is that we do grow like that for the most part.<\/p>\n\t

Here is 3% growth in a series of 350.
\n\"\"<\/p>\n\t

Here is where we start to see the issue.\u00a0 It plods along at almost nothing for majority of the series and then towards the very end, it shoots off the chart (no pun intended).<\/p>\n\t

That’s not sustainable.\u00a0 All systems like this eventually collapse.<\/strong> A good analogy is bacterial growth.\u00a0 It looks like this as well, and then, when it is about to shoot off the chart and grow out of the petri dish…it exhausts its food in a fit of growth, and the colony dies….quite quickly.<\/p>\n\t

Growth requires input….we are growing something (the economy), and we need raw materials to make that happen.\u00a0 Those raw materials MUST eventually deplete, as does the food in the petri dish.<\/p>\n\t

Even if you give the bacteria more food or a bigger petri dish, it doesn’t matter.\u00a0 The growth curve will eventually catch you.\u00a0 You won’t be able to shovel in inputs faster than the growth.<\/p>\n\t

I’m not being all environmental. I’m saying it is simply impossible, under any set of circumstances<\/strong>, to maintain 3% growth indefinitely.\u00a0 We need to accept that reality and plan for it.<\/p>\n\t

Speaking of reality:\u00a0 The concept isn’t “Save the Planet”.\u00a0 Trust me; the planet isn’t going anywhere.\u00a0 We’re not even trying to save life <\/em>on this planet.\u00a0 Life is pretty resilient; it survives.\u00a0 “Save the Planet for Humans” is a more accurate.\u00a0 I guess that doesn’t fit as well on a bumper sticker?\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Basic assumptions are rarely questioned.\u00a0 One has to be pretty astute to even understand what the basic assumptions behind something are.\u00a0 If you don’t know; you can’t question.\u00a0 Even if you do, you have to be inclined to care. I’d like to question two basic assumptions today: Assumption 1: Kids should go to college: I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0},"categories":[10],"tags":[28,60,58],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3IMYj-48","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":520,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=520","url_meta":{"origin":256,"position":0},"title":"The problem with experts: We need them, but don’t know how to identify them.","author":"kellio","date":"January 20, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"As a consultant, I am a paid expert. What does it take to be an expert? 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