{"id":183,"date":"2009-07-08T20:35:28","date_gmt":"2009-07-09T03:35:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=183"},"modified":"2009-07-08T20:36:40","modified_gmt":"2009-07-09T03:36:40","slug":"unsourcing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=183","title":{"rendered":"Unsourcing"},"content":{"rendered":"\t

I’d never heard that term before a few weeks ago, but I get the concept.<\/p>\n\t

Sometimes jobs are not outsourced or offshored…they simply disappear and no one gets them…or at least that is the concept.<\/p>\n\t

As I think about machines taking blue collar jobs, and computers taking increasingly white collar jobs….it is only a matter of time until no one’s job is safe.<\/p>\n\t

The economic concept there is that the increasing technology is a good thing:\u00a0 We don’t want people farming with oxen and mules.\u00a0 We’d all be starving to death…not enough food to go around.<\/p>\n\t

We also like the automation of more complex work.\u00a0 We complain when someone’s job is replaced by an Excel macro, but was the work really that worthwhile anyway?<\/p>\n\t

Also, I worked on one of those big enterprise platforms for years (like the ones that handle stock trades, account balances, cut paychecks, etc).\u00a0 Trust me, without stuff like that our society wouldn’t exist.\u00a0 If the virtual paper pushed by those systems became real paper that someone had to process….every single person in the US would be employed as a paper pusher.\u00a0 That’s no life.<\/p>\n\t

We need those things; every job that is “lost” makes our society better.<\/p>\n\t

So what’s the issue?<\/p>\n\t

Well, two things:<\/p>\n\t

First<\/strong>, the easy one:\u00a0 Offshoring is great because we save money by allowing Indians to program our software and China to manufacture our goods.\u00a0 We spend that money elsewhere, hopefully in some productive pursuits in addition to enjoying a higher standard of living…and we’re a little better off on average.<\/p>\n\t

Now it gets more conceptual:\u00a0 China is learning to manufacture.\u00a0 India is learning to program.\u00a0 What are we learning? <\/strong><\/p>\n\t

The concept is that China manufactures cheap, basic goods, and India programs low level software…but where do you learn how to manufacture complex goods and high level software……you start with the cheap and low level.\u00a0 We are exporting our expertise to them, and not replacing it here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\t

The second point is a bit further out:\u00a0 Goods get cheaper as we get better at making them…and we are definitely getting better.\u00a0 Economics also says that as the marginal cost of making one more item drops to zero, the cost can also drop to zero.<\/p>\n\t

Will we ever get to zero?\u00a0 Will things ever cost nothing (or close to it)?<\/p>\n\t

It isn’t a dumb question.\u00a0 We live like kings if you compare us to someone\u00a0 200, 300, 1000 years ago.\u00a0 The cost of stuff IS dropping…just not quite to zero, and we think up new crap to get, so we end up on the hedonic treadmill.<\/p>\n\t

I used to think that would last forever, but I am not so certain anymore.\u00a0 I’ve seen some real big ideas come out of bio-tech, alternative energy, nano-technology, artificial intelligence, etc.\u00a0 If even a few of those hit……we’re in for a ride.<\/p>\n\t

Let the price of energy drop to near zero and watch the price of all other goods drop dramatically.<\/p>\n\t

Let bio-tech add 50 good, productive years to everyone’s life and watch the most productive of us invent\/outsource\/unsource things we never dreamed of.<\/p>\n\t

The biggest (probably most far off) bets are in nano-tech and artificial intelligence.\u00a0 Imagine a nano-tech printer that can “print” anything you can draw up (there is already work being done with these kind of general purpose printers).\u00a0 Now imagine you didn’t even have to draw it up…you ask your artificial intelligence to think of something for you.<\/p>\n\t

Some of this isn’t so far fetched.\u00a0 The printer idea will come in some form.\u00a0 So will AI to rival human intelligence.\u00a0 There are already self-improving algorithms that you can give a problem to and generation over generation (all on a computer) it (being the algorithm) will get better at the task…in essence evolving.<\/p>\n\t

When this hits the price of goods will fall to near zero, and basically humans will be worthless, vis a vis the Matrix and Terminator.<\/p>\n\t

Anyone that thinks I am advocating that we attempt to\u00a0 re-cork the bottle and protect jobs here at home or become subsistence farming Luddites misunderstands.\u00a0 I am simply playing out scenarios.\u00a0 Protectionism wouldn’t work anyway.\u00a0 Societies rise and fall.\u00a0 The US is on the downslope.\u00a0 Nothing will change that.\u00a0 As for humans being useful, frankly I don’t think it matters.\u00a0 Just as societies rise and fall, so do species.\u00a0 Perhaps it is time to give something else a chance.<\/p>\n\t

Ok, I’m off to bed.\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’d never heard that term before a few weeks ago, but I get the concept. Sometimes jobs are not outsourced or offshored…they simply disappear and no one gets them…or at least that is the concept. As I think about machines taking blue collar jobs, and computers taking increasingly white collar jobs….it is only a matter […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0},"categories":[1],"tags":[28],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3IMYj-2X","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":49,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=49","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":0},"title":"Home ownership (part II): Advantages and Disadvantages","author":"kellio","date":"February 17, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Advantages: It is better than coming home to a rental. There is a sense of increased comfort when everything is yours and you know that if you don't like the way the kitchen is...you can tear it out and make it how you like. (Not that I'm likely to do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What I'm doing"","block_context":{"text":"What I'm doing","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?cat=3"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":799,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=799","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":1},"title":"The tyranny of “OR” and the genius of “AND”: Is it really that simple?","author":"kellio","date":"April 8, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Genius of \"AND\" goes like this: \"If there's one lesson from our finding to keep in mind above all others, it is this: Clock build your company so that it preserves a passionately held core ideology and simultaneously stimulates progress in everything but that ideology. Preserve the core and\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":277,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=277","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":2},"title":"Where are all the jobs?","author":"kellio","date":"January 31, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"I've heard this before; I guess its just coming up more now as the jobs situation gets worse. The private sector had 107 million jobs in 1999, and that's about the number it has currently....a decade later.\u00a0 There was an artificial bump before Y2K as companies hired a bunch of\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":43,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=43","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":3},"title":"US Healthcare: Too many hands in the pot","author":"kellio","date":"January 24, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Several political candidates are talking about some sort of universal health care. Everyone knows I am for socialized medicine. If we provide free basic education because we believe education is a right everyone has, then how can being healthy not also be a basic right? I would say health is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"economics\"","block_context":{"text":"economics","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?tag=economics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":412,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=412","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":4},"title":"U.S. Manufacturing:","author":"kellio","date":"January 27, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Output vs. Jobs Since 1975. Fewer jobs, more output.","rel":"","context":"In "Asides"","block_context":{"text":"Asides","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?cat=23"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":520,"url":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?p=520","url_meta":{"origin":183,"position":5},"title":"The problem with experts: We need them, but don’t know how to identify them.","author":"kellio","date":"January 20, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"As a consultant, I am a paid expert. What does it take to be an expert? A few things. \u00a0There is subject matter specific lingo\/vocabulary that experts use; if you know the lingo you somewhat self-identify as an expert. \u00a0Experts are sometimes published. \u00a0Experts know frameworks and the history of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"consulting\"","block_context":{"text":"consulting","link":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/?tag=consulting"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=183"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":185,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183\/revisions\/185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/chasingeden.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}